A recent analysis published by the “Washington Institute for Near East Policy” predicted that as the incoming administration of US President Donald Trump prepares to take office, there is every reason to believe that it will seek to take concrete actions to strengthen its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara.
The analysis predicted that the new administration is expected to open a consulate in the city of Dakhla as promised in 2020 (a consular presence was established but remained virtual). Trump's return could also open lucrative investment opportunities for American companies.
The analysis, titled: “EU-Morocco Relations: Between Law and Politics”, prepared by researcher Souhail Madini, explained that “although Washington signed a free trade agreement with Morocco two decades ago and has no current legal obstacles to foreign direct investment in the Sahara, the expected boom in American investment has never materialized”.
The same researcher believes that any development in economic relations with the United States will necessarily be limited by the fact that the European Union is Morocco's largest trading partner, and its largest foreign investor ever, due to geographical proximity and other reasons.
According to the same analyst, “if Washington and its European partners fail to address the ongoing disputes over trade rights and the Moroccan Sahara, they may leave the field for Russia and China to assert more influence in the Kingdom”, and she said that “although Morocco's engagement with Moscow and Beijing is traditionally limited, the European Court of Justice ruling may push the Kingdom into the arms of these competitors…”, and added: “They have worked quietly to advance their interests in Morocco, including the Sahara, targeting local resources and investing in the coastal fishing sector”.
As examples, Souhail Madini mentioned Russia's recent renewal of a four-year fishing agreement with Rabat, while China is likely to increase its presence on Morocco's coasts based on the 2023 memorandum of understanding on marine fishing. Beijing is also looking to invest in green hydrogen projects in the Saharan provinces, having signed a cooperation memorandum in 2023 with the Moroccan company Gaia Energy and the Saudi company Ajnan Brothers.
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